Robinhood has significantly reduced its probability estimate for Bitcoin reaching $150,000 before June 2026 to just 14%, down from a 63% chance given in October 2025. This revision reflects diminished market confidence following Bitcoin's failure to hold key support levels and a continued correction from its recent peak.
The current Bitcoin price is approximately $89,200, which is 68% below the $150,000 target. This price action comes after a short rally in early January 2026, where BTC saw five consecutive days of gains, pushing the price over 7% higher and reaching a two-month peak of $94,792 on January 5. However, the asset faced firm resistance and subsequently fell below the $90,000 support zone, losing 5.4% from that local high.
Robinhood's probability model has been adjusted downward throughout the correction. After Bitcoin hit a record high of $126,272 on October 6, 2025, the odds stood at 63%. By November 1, 2025, they had dropped to 45%, and by the end of November, they were revised to 27%. The estimate has fluctuated between 12% and 16% in early January, settling at the current 14%. For even shorter timeframes, the company assigns a 9% chance before May 2026, 4% before April, and just 2% before February.
The news coincides with a wide range of analyst forecasts for Bitcoin's price in 2026, highlighting market uncertainty. Predictions from various experts and institutions span from $75,000 to $225,000. Carol Alexander, a finance professor at the University of Sussex, expects Bitcoin to trade between $75,000 and $150,000, settling around $110,000. James Butterfill of CoinShares forecasts a range of $120,000 to $170,000, citing potential dovish Federal Reserve policy as a catalyst.
Standard Chartered revised its year-end 2026 forecast down from $300,000 to $150,000 in December. Geoff Kendrick, leading the bank's digital asset research, noted that buying from digital asset treasury (DAT) firms has paused, and future growth is "likely to be driven by one leg only – ETF buying." Other notable forecasts include a $175,000 target from Maple Finance CEO Sidney Powell, who cites Bitcoin-backed lending growth, and a broad $75,000 to $225,000 range from Bit Mining's chief economist Youwei Yang, who warns of heightened volatility.
