The Bitcoin network has completed its first mining difficulty adjustment of 2026, offering a brief respite for miners after a challenging period. The adjustment, which occurred on Thursday, January 8, saw the difficulty level decrease slightly to 146.4 trillion.
Mining difficulty measures the computational effort required to mine a new block on the Bitcoin blockchain. The network automatically recalibrates this metric approximately every two weeks to maintain an average block time target of 10 minutes. At the time of this adjustment, average block times were running at about 9.88 minutes, slightly faster than the target.
This faster block production signals that the next adjustment, forecasted by platform CoinWarz to occur on January 22, 2026, at 04:08:12 AM UTC, is expected to reverse the trend and increase the difficulty. The projection estimates a rise to approximately 148.20 trillion from the current 146.47 trillion.
Despite the recent dip, Bitcoin's mining difficulty remains at historically elevated levels. Throughout 2025, the metric climbed steadily to new all-time highs, with a slight easing towards the year's end. Even after this adjustment, the difficulty remains below the peak of 155.9 trillion recorded in November 2025.
The persistently high difficulty underscores the severe strain on the mining sector. Analysts note that miners have faced the harshest margin environment on record following the April 2024 halving event, which cut block rewards in half. This pressure intensified during the crypto market downturn that began in late 2025.
A key profitability metric, the miner hash price (expected daily revenue per unit of computational power), fell below breakeven levels in November, dropping under $35 per petahash per second per day. Many operators view the $40 level as the threshold for sustainable operations.
External factors have compounded these challenges. US tariff policies introduced during President Donald Trump's term have sparked concerns over mining equipment supply chains. Furthermore, a sharp market sell-off in October 2024 triggered a broader decline, with Bitcoin's price dropping over 30% in November to briefly trade just above $80,000, down from an October peak exceeding $125,000.
Amid this pressure, hardware manufacturer Bitmain is reportedly cutting prices aggressively across multiple generations of Bitcoin mining machines in promotional campaigns, indicating a broader industry effort to adapt to the difficult conditions.
