A significant divergence is emerging between traditional safe-haven assets and Bitcoin. While gold and silver have surged to new all-time highs, Bitcoin continues to trade well below its October 2025 peak, reigniting debates about its role as "digital gold."
Gold is trading above $4,500 per ounce and silver around $84 per ounce, reflecting strong demand for traditional safe havens. In contrast, Bitcoin is hovering around $90,000, approximately 28% below its October 2025 high near $126,000. When measured in gold terms, Bitcoin has slipped below 20 ounces to start 2026, hitting what analysts describe as two-year lows.
The rally in precious metals is primarily driven by macroeconomic uncertainty rather than speculative momentum. Geopolitical tensions and persistent global instability have increased demand for assets considered reliable stores of value. Expectations for more accommodative monetary policies and concerns about currency devaluation have further supported metal prices.
Analyst Karel Mercx, an investment specialist at Dutch advisory firm Beleggers Belangen, declared that "the verdict is in: the debasement trade is Gold & Silver, not Bitcoin." He argued that a "frontal attack on the FED sends metals to fresh ATHs while BTC sits 20% below its peak," concluding that "the narrative is broken" and investors are choosing "the original hard money over the digital experiment."
Bitcoin's underperformance highlights its continued sensitivity to overall risk sentiment. Despite comparisons to gold, Bitcoin has behaved more like a high-beta asset during recent market stress, maintaining correlation with tech stocks and other risky assets. This dynamic becomes more visible as investors reduce exposure to volatile assets and prioritize capital preservation.
Market participants are divided on how to interpret this divergence. Some traders see Bitcoin's lag as a signal of temporary undervaluation relative to precious metals, while others view it as a reminder that Bitcoin hasn't fully decoupled from risk markets. Historically, similar gaps have occurred during periods of macro stress, sometimes followed by strong Bitcoin recoveries once conditions stabilize.
Crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe expressed concern, stating that "it really needs to accelerate with this breakout, or we'll start to tumble back down." Meanwhile, commentator Benjamin Cowen highlighted gold's performance against the S&P 500 as "one of the most important charts right now," suggesting a breakdown could signal a major shift in the financial environment.
Looking ahead, key variables will be geopolitical risk, monetary policy expectations, and overall market volatility. A decline in global tensions or increased confidence in growth assets could favor a Bitcoin recovery, while persistent uncertainty may continue to benefit gold and silver.
