Bitfinex analysts have issued a cautious outlook for Bitcoin, warning against expectations of major near-term price pumps. They cite institutional whale de-risking and volatility in ETF flows as key factors. According to Bitfinex Alpha reports, key institutional traders on the platform have substantially reduced their long Bitcoin positions, with holdings decreasing from up to 73,000 BTC. This activity has contributed to Bitcoin trading in a narrow range between $85,000 and $94,000, with recent stalls around $90,000-$91,500.
The analysts note a lack of new significant funding or institutional allocations, suggesting conservative market sentiment. However, they also point to historical data where similar long position reductions have signaled market bottoms and preceded rallies. "The whale unwind is more about de-risking rather than indicating bearish sentiment in the market," noted analyst James Van Straten. The importance of stabilizing ETF flows is highlighted, which have seen both inflows and outflows exceeding a billion dollars.
Contrasting this cautious view, on-chain data points to a sharp pickup in activity from long-dormant holders. On a recent Saturday, so-called "OG whale" spent value—Bitcoin moved after being idle for over seven years—jumped to about $286 million, according to Capriole Investments. This marks the largest single-day spike since early November. While large movements from old coins often trigger distribution concerns, the scale remains below prior peaks, and broader indicators suggest the market is absorbing supply without stress.
Glassnode data shows distribution from long-term holders has slowed sharply, with net outflows rolling over from earlier extremes. This suggests much of the overhead supply from early buyers may have been absorbed during previous rallies. Demand remains strong from accumulator addresses, which have continued adding Bitcoin throughout 2026. CryptoQuant data shows these addresses acquired nearly 136,000 BTC in just 11 days this month, indicating steady demand on dips.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's structure shows improvement. The five-day moving average convergence divergence (MACD) has flipped bullish—a signal last seen near the 2022 bear market low, which preceded a multi-month rally. Order book data also points to strengthening demand, with bid-side liquidity outweighing asks. Liquidity has clustered between $89,200 and $89,700, creating a key near-term pivot zone.
Traders remain watchful of key levels, with liquidity below $89,000 seen as an area of interest. A sweep into the $86,000-$87,000 range followed by a strong rebound could clear the way for another attempt at the $100,000 psychological level. Failure to reclaim support quickly, however, would increase the risk of a deeper pullback toward $84,000. The market now sits in a familiar phase: strong on-chain demand, improving momentum, and visible profit-taking—all unfolding near a major psychological price level.
