Nvidia's stock (NVDA) traded in a tight range around $185 on Monday, January 12, 2026, as investor caution grew following reports that Chinese authorities have asked domestic tech firms to temporarily pause new orders for Nvidia's H200 AI chips. The pause appears precautionary, aimed at preventing stockpiling while Beijing finalizes updated import and regulatory conditions. This development introduces significant timing risk for Nvidia, which reportedly has a $54 billion backlog, with Chinese firms alone having placed orders for over 2 million H200 chips for 2026 delivery at an estimated price of $27,000 per chip.
To mitigate this risk, Nvidia is now requiring full upfront payment from Chinese customers with no refunds or cancellations, highlighting the sensitivity of the situation. Despite the uncertainty, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang stated at CES that demand for the H200—designed for China's market under U.S. export rules—remains "very high" and that he does not expect problems from Chinese regulators.
In a separate but significant development, Nvidia announced a major partnership with pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly. The companies are committing up to $1 billion over five years to fund a new AI research lab in the San Francisco Bay Area. The lab will focus on building advanced AI models for biology and chemistry to accelerate drug discovery. "Nvidia and Lilly are bringing together the best of our industries to invent a new blueprint for drug discovery," said Huang.
Analysts remain broadly bullish on Nvidia's long-term prospects. Truist Securities analyst William Stein noted that AI-related demand remains robust across hyperscalers, neocloud providers, sovereign customers, and China. Baird maintained an Outperform rating with a $275 price target, citing Nvidia's central role in global AI ecosystems and the high barriers to entry created by its software and platforms. Bernstein also named Nvidia a top pick, favoring its roadmap over competitors like AMD.
Technically, NVDA failed to hold above $186, forming a short-term lower high. The stock's consolidation reflects a balance between strong long-term AI demand and short-term geopolitical uncertainty surrounding its crucial Chinese market.
