A regulated U.S. prediction market platform, Kalshi, is currently assigning a 60% probability to the passage of a landmark bill that would ban stock trading by members of the U.S. Congress in 2025. This data point, derived from real-money trading contracts, represents a significant shift in market expectations and offers a quantitative benchmark for the potential of major congressional ethics reform.
The legislative push builds upon the 2012 STOCK Act, which prohibited using non-public information for profit but has been criticized for weak enforcement. New proposals, like the Ban Conflicted Trading Act, seek an outright ban, requiring lawmakers to divest individual stocks into qualified blind trusts or broad-based funds like ETFs. The restrictions would also apply to spouses and dependent children, with penalties including significant fines.
Public support for a ban is strong, with a 2024 Pew Research Center survey finding over 70% of Americans in favor. Expert analysis suggests the 60% probability indicates a "tipping point" but acknowledges significant procedural hurdles remain, particularly the 60-vote threshold in the Senate.
Separately, sources indicate a specific bill aimed at banning congressional stock trading is expected to advance in Congress this week, signaling renewed political momentum. The legislation aims to prevent conflicts of interest and boost public trust, with enforcement mechanisms being a key focus after past weaknesses.
