The UK economy showed unexpected resilience in November 2024, with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanding by 0.3%, according to data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This figure significantly surpassed the 0.1% growth forecast by economists and reversed a 0.1% contraction recorded in October. The ONS also revised September's data upward to show 0.1% growth instead of an initial estimate of contraction.
Growth was primarily driven by a rebound in the services sector, which expanded by 0.3%. A significant 2.1% rise in manufacturing output, largely attributed to the recovery of Jaguar Land Rover's production after a cyberattack, contributed to about half of the overall GDP increase. On a less volatile three-month basis, the economy grew 0.1% in the period leading to November, beating expectations of a 0.2% contraction.
Despite the positive November data, the broader economic outlook remains fragile. Growth has been hampered by geopolitical uncertainty, elevated borrowing costs, and anticipation of tax-raising measures announced in Chancellor Rachel Reeves's November Budget. The budget included an additional £26 billion ($35 billion) in tax rises. The Bank of England had forecast no growth for the final quarter of 2025.
Separate forecasts from Bloomberg Economics project the UK economy to grow by 1.4% in 2025, which would place it third among G7 nations, trailing only the United States and Canada. However, this growth is below the government's target and historical averages from the 2010s. Economists anticipate growth will slow to 1.1% in 2026, with consumer spending and a cooling labor market being key uncertainties.
