Avalanche's native token AVAX is showing early signs of a potential trend reversal, with technical analysts pointing to key chart patterns and improving fundamentals that could propel the cryptocurrency toward the $16-$18 range. The token is currently trading around $13.84, having experienced a 4.83% decline in the last 24 hours, but broader market structure suggests underlying strength is building.
Technical analysts highlight that AVAX has exited its descending channel after forming an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, a classic bullish reversal formation typically seen after prolonged bearish phases. According to analyst Surya, this marks the first "real shift off the lows" since the broader downtrend began, with the $10-$11 region emerging as a critical support base that has been repeatedly defended by buyers.
Analyst Ali Martinez identifies $14.83 as a crucial resistance level that AVAX must decisively break to confirm the bullish reversal. The token has already tested this barrier three times in the past month, with recent rejection around $14.85 indicating significant selling pressure at this level. Martinez explains that a clean break above this neckline resistance would trigger a bullish breakout with initial targets at $17.59, potentially extending to $18.41 - representing a 35% gain from current prices.
Oversold conditions are adding to the bullish technical case, with the XTRM indicator showing AVAX at its most oversold level since the 2022-2023 bear market bottom. This suggests seller exhaustion near the $11 support zone, with historical patterns indicating such readings typically coincide with exhaustion phases rather than continuation of downtrends.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, analyst AlienOvich frames the recent price action as a completed five-wave advance from the December low, followed by a developing three-wave corrective pullback. This aligns with classical behavior during early trend shifts, with price currently respecting a rising channel with projected support between $13.20 and $12.50.
Fundamental metrics are reinforcing the technical outlook, with AVAX One reporting that the Avalanche network became 43x more cost-efficient over the past year while daily transactions tripled to 4.3 million. This scaling efficiency typically appears before price fully reflects underlying adoption, suggesting the ecosystem is maturing even as market sentiment remains cautious.
The monthly chart shows AVAX with a 14.67% gain, indicating potential trend reversal following negative Q4 2025 performance. For the reversal to sustain, AVAX must hold above the $11 base and convert the $14.83 resistance into support, which would open the path toward $16.50 and $18.00 levels that align with prior consolidation zones.
