Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and Chief Investment Officer at Maelstrom, has made a pair of highly bullish long-term predictions for Bitcoin, linking its future price trajectory directly to global macroeconomic policies and liquidity expansion. In a recent personal Substack essay, Hayes projected that Bitcoin could surge to a price between $110,000 and $500,000 by 2026. Furthermore, in a separate, viral social media post, he set an even more ambitious target of $3.4 million by 2028.
Hayes's thesis is fundamentally macroeconomic. He argues that central banks, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve, will be compelled to inject massive liquidity into the financial system. This expansion is expected to be driven by factors such as ballooning government debt and potential implementations of policies like yield curve control. Hayes believes these actions will systematically devalue fiat currencies over the long term, driving investors toward scarce, non-sovereign assets.
Bitcoin, with its fixed supply, is positioned as the prime beneficiary and "insurance" against this currency devaluation. Hayes points to a historical positive correlation between Bitcoin's price growth and periods of liquidity expansion, suggesting a similar bullish outcome is imminent. He acknowledges that Bitcoin may experience volatility and a potential dip before a substantial rally, but emphasizes that exponential price action is characteristic of the asset, not an aberration.
From a valuation perspective, the $500,000 target represents a significant multiple from current levels, while the $3.4 million prediction implies a staggering 30x increase from a baseline near $115,000. Hayes clarified that while the exact figure may not be hit, the directional trend toward dramatically higher prices is the core of his argument.
The prediction, especially the $3.4 million forecast shared in a viral tweet featuring Hayes on stage with a bullish chart, has sparked intense discussion within crypto communities. Proponents see it as validation of a Bitcoin "supercycle" thesis bolstered by institutional adoption via ETFs. Skeptics, however, caution against over-optimism and the risks of retail euphoria driven by extreme price targets. Regardless, Hayes's influential voice is shaping market psychology, framing Bitcoin as a generational asset tied to global economic instability.
