Crypto analyst and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has posited that potential intervention by the U.S. Federal Reserve to support the Japanese yen could act as a major catalyst for Bitcoin, potentially driving its price to $200,000 by March 2026. Hayes's analysis centers on the mechanics of such an intervention, suggesting the Fed would need to print dollars, create new banking reserves, and use those funds to purchase yen, thereby expanding its balance sheet.
The proposed mechanism would see the Fed's foreign currency assets line, currently near $19.1 billion, grow. This expansion of liquidity, Hayes argues, has historically been bullish for Bitcoin. The speculation follows a sudden 1.75% rally in the yen to 155.63 per dollar, which market participants attributed to reports that the New York Federal Reserve contacted major banks to check conditions in the yen market, though no official intervention has been confirmed.
Hayes outlined a tiered bullish outlook contingent on renewed liquidity flows. His base scenario sees Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by March 2026 if the Fed begins expanding its balance sheet. In a more aggressive forecast, he has suggested Bitcoin could climb as high as $500,000 by the end of 2026 if global money printing accelerates.
Despite the speculative fervor, Bitcoin's price action remained relatively muted at the time of the reports, trading steadily around $89,500. Technical analysis cited in the reports indicates Bitcoin was trading in a "no-trading zone" between key support and resistance levels. A break above the major resistance zone near $91,000 could open a path toward $98,000 and $102,000, while support is seen near $89,000 and more robustly between $86,500 and $83,000.
