Long-term Bitcoin holders have resumed selling the cryptocurrency at the fastest pace in five months, with distribution accelerating as Bitcoin's price lags behind traditional assets like gold and silver. According to Glassnode data, investors who have held Bitcoin for at least 155 days—a cohort typically viewed as conviction-driven—have sold roughly 143,000 BTC over the past 30 days.
This selling activity mirrors a prior distribution peak in August, when around 170,000 BTC was sold over a similar period. At that time, Bitcoin was trading above $120,000 and hit a record high two months later in October, reinforcing a narrative that long-term holders were selling into strength. The October peak aligned with the four-year cycle theory tied to Bitcoin's halving events, the last of which occurred in April 2024.
The discrepancy between Bitcoin's performance and that of broader financial assets points to stress in the crypto market, raising the risk of further downside or an extended consolidation phase. After a sharp 36% drawdown from the October high through late November, long-term holders briefly shifted to net accumulation from late December into early January, helping stabilize prices and push Bitcoin to around $97,000.
However, the current selling pressure has resumed, with approximately 2 million coins now sitting at a loss. Despite the recent distribution, this group of investors still owns about 14.5 million BTC, indicating that long-term holder reductions remain a key headwind for price appreciation.
Separately, a recent spike in Bitcoin's realized losses, which initially suggested short-term holder capitulation, has been attributed to a technical artifact rather than genuine selling pressure. Data from CryptoQuant reveals that a UTXO consolidation event on January 23, involving approximately 217,000 BTC, artificially inflated realized loss metrics. The coins were not sold but were transferred internally to aggregate fragmented UTXOs, distorting several short-term holder indicators like STH MVRV and SOPR.
This event mirrors a similar false signal observed in late November related to Coinbase wallet restructuring. With this anomaly isolated, overall on-chain activity appears muted, suggesting the market remains in a consolidation phase rather than entering a new sell-driven regime. Bitcoin's price has held relatively stable above the $85,000–$87,000 zone, demonstrating resilience despite the misleading on-chain signals.
