Worldcoin (WLD) has staged a dramatic 50% price rebound since January 25, significantly outperforming other large-cap altcoins. The rally was initially sparked by a bullish technical divergence but gained substantial momentum from market rumors linking OpenAI to the development of a new social media platform that could utilize Worldcoin's iris-scanning identity verification technology.
The price action began with a technical signal. Between December 18 and January 25, WLD's price formed a lower low while its Relative Strength Index (RSI) made a higher low, creating a bullish divergence that often precedes trend reversals. This pattern had previously led to a 41% rally in late December. The recent surge saw WLD climb from a low on January 25, adding approximately 13% in the past 24 hours alone at the time of reporting, briefly pushing the price toward $0.65.
The catalyst for the accelerated move was speculation that OpenAI is exploring a "humans-only" social platform built around proof of personhood, a concept that aligns directly with Worldcoin's core identity verification system. The rumor triggered a massive 800% spike in trading volume. However, the rally showed signs of weakness almost immediately, with the daily candle printing a long upper wick, indicating strong selling pressure at higher prices.
On-chain data reveals the rally's fragility. During the price spike, exchange inflows for WLD skyrocketed from roughly 0.83 million tokens to a peak near 10.7 million, representing over $5.6 million in potential selling pressure as underwater traders moved tokens to exchanges. Although inflows have since cooled to around 3.4 million WLD, the initial surge helped cap the rally's upside.
Whale activity showed a split in strategy. Larger wallets (holding 10M-100M WLD) began accumulating around January 15, well before the OpenAI news, increasing their holdings by about 30 million tokens (~$15.9M). Smaller whales (1M-10M WLD) only bought in during the news-driven spike, adding about 2.6 million tokens (~$1.4M).
Technically, Worldcoin remains trapped within a bearish descending channel that has guided its price lower since October 2025. The recent surge challenged but failed to hold above the channel's upper boundary and was rejected by the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $0.66. A clean daily close above this level, representing a 25% move from current prices, is seen as critical for confirming a trend reversal and opening a path toward $0.73, $0.84, and potentially $0.95. Conversely, a break below $0.51 weakens the structure, with risk increasing below $0.48.
Despite the explosive move, broader on-chain metrics raise concerns. Active address counts on the Worldcoin network have continued to decline since a Q4 2025 spike, indicating a lack of fresh retail engagement and suggesting the rally was driven more by speculation and large holders than organic, broad-based demand. This fundamental weakness contributed to the swift 12%+ pullback that followed the initial 40% surge.
