Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal has made a striking assessment of Bitcoin's current valuation, arguing that the cryptocurrency should be priced around $140,000 based on global liquidity models. This forecast comes amidst a significant market downturn that has seen Bitcoin's price fall to approximately $78,441 in early 2026, erasing nearly all gains from its 2025 rally which peaked at a record high of $124,700 in October.
Pal attributes the prolonged market weakness to the aftermath of the October 10th crash. He describes the event as beginning with a macroeconomic shock, citing the impact of former US President Donald Trump's tariff policies, which triggered large-scale liquidations in highly leveraged positions. The situation was exacerbated, Pal claims, by a brief outage on the Binance API at the peak of the liquidation wave. This outage allegedly prevented professional market makers from placing orders and providing liquidity, creating a chain reaction that accelerated forced selling.
"Centralized exchanges were forced to add approximately $10 billion worth of assets to their inventories during the event," Pal estimates. He posits that the subsequent market decline stemmed from these exchanges gradually depleting that inventory by selling off assets, particularly through algorithmic selling during US stock market hours.
Looking forward, Pal predicts that this selling pressure will be largely absorbed by the end of February 2026, after which Bitcoin could experience a rapid recovery toward his $140,000 target. In a related development, Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) responded to allegations regarding the exchange's role in the crash, stating in a Space broadcast, "The October 10th crash was not caused by a systemic or operational problem at Binance."
The broader market context for this prediction includes several headwinds. The nomination of the hawkish Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair has altered interest rate expectations, strengthening the US dollar and dampening risk appetite. Furthermore, the initial excitement around spot Bitcoin ETFs has faded, leading to significant outflows as professional investors de-risked. Despite oversold technical indicators like the RSI suggesting a potential near-term bounce, market sentiment remains cautious, with Bitcoin's dominance holding at 59.82%.
