The price of Hedera's native token, HBAR, is under significant pressure following a broader market downturn, with technical analysis pointing to a potential 30% rally if key resistance levels are breached. HBAR recently experienced a sharp decline, dropping toward the $0.0893 support level, reflecting bearish sentiment driven by macroeconomic uncertainty and weakness in Bitcoin.
Price action remains within a well-defined descending channel, with a recent rejection from the upper boundary near $0.1290 confirming seller dominance. Analysts note that a breakout from this pattern could trigger a 31% rise, sending HBAR toward $0.1252. However, immediate support sits at $0.0786, with a breakdown below $0.0832 potentially exposing the token to a deeper decline toward $0.0710.
Derivatives data paints a more cautious picture. HBAR's futures funding rate has stayed negative for the past 48 hours, indicating that short positions are paying longs and reflecting a market bias toward further downside. This positioning suggests traders expect additional weakness and are attempting to profit from it, with short contracts currently dominating longs.
A critical factor is HBAR's high correlation with Bitcoin, with a correlation coefficient currently near 0.96. This strong relationship typically benefits altcoins during Bitcoin rallies but acts as a constraint in the current environment where Bitcoin has struggled to regain momentum. Until Bitcoin stabilizes or reverses higher, HBAR is likely to mirror broader market pressure.
Fundamentally, Hedera continues to show strength with institutional conversations around spot HBAR ETF filings and steady network upgrades like mainnet v0.68 and v0.69. Real-world adoption stories, such as Georgia's real-estate registry MoU, provide long-term utility drivers. For the week ahead, the HBAR price is at a decision point around the $0.090–$0.093 zone. A hold and push above $0.096 could open a path toward $0.102, while a loss of $0.09 could see a retest of support near $0.084 or even the prior low of $0.07150.
