As Bitcoin (BTC) experiences significant volatility, declining 22.5% over the past month and briefly touching its lowest level in over a year, analysts are intensifying their debate on where the current bear market will finally bottom. The focus has shifted to identifying key price zones, with predictions ranging widely from $30,000 to levels above $50,000.
Technical and On-Chain Analysis Points to Potential Downside
Several analysts are focusing on levels below $40,000. Analyst Ardi examined Fibonacci retracement levels, noting that Bitcoin bottomed at the 78.6% mark during the 2022 bear market, which currently sits near $39,176. Analyst Nehal highlighted a historical pattern where each cycle's drawdown has been roughly 7% smaller than the previous one. Applying this framework—assuming a peak near $126,000 and a ~70% drawdown—suggests a potential bottom near $38,000.
On-chain data provides another perspective. Analyst Ted Pillows pointed to the long-term holder realized price, currently around $40,300. Historical cycle bottoms typically occur when prices drop 15% below this figure, aiming for a potential bottom near $34,500. Some forecasts are even more bearish, with analyst Satori predicting Bitcoin could fully bottom at $30,000 by the end of 2026 before initiating another multi-year rally.
The Case for a Higher Floor and Structural Change
Contrasting these views, other market commentators argue that Bitcoin's bottom may already be in, challenging expectations of another deep leg down. A pseudonymous analyst suggested that the widespread belief in a crash to $40K, $35K, or $20K is precisely why it probably won't happen. This perspective points to a changed market structure due to factors like spot Bitcoin ETFs and increased institutional participation.
The analyst argued that institutions that have launched ETFs, onboarded billions, and built infrastructure are unlikely to allow Bitcoin to revisit levels that invalidate their thesis, making a sustained move below $50,000 structurally unlikely, barring a major breaking event.
Trader Sentiment and Market Dynamics
Amid the uncertainty, experienced trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio offered a cautious assessment. While noting that the $60,000 level stands out as "reasonable" technical support, he warned that there is no clear consensus on whether the market has bottomed. Eugene highlighted structural problems in the higher time frame (HTF) market structure and advised that "survival" should be the priority for investors, emphasizing the use of stop-loss orders.
Market data from 10x Research supports a cautious stance, noting that despite sentiment and technical indicators nearing extreme levels, the broader downtrend remains intact. Flow data shows continued ETF withdrawals and rising stablecoin conversions, pointing to limited appetite for aggressive dip-buying. Traders remain focused on deleveraging rather than preparing for a typical snapback rally.
Analyst Darkfost revealed that Bitcoin's Sharpe ratio has dropped to -10, its lowest since March 2023, entering a zone historically associated with the later stages of bear markets and potential turning zones. However, he cautioned this does not signal the immediate end of the bear market and that further declines are possible before a meaningful reversal.
