Bitcoin's recent price action has triggered a debate among analysts about the nature of the current downturn, with some labeling it the "weakest bear case" in the cryptocurrency's history. According to data, Bitcoin fell nearly 45% from its all-time high of $126,080 and broke below its 365-day simple moving average late last year—a level historically viewed as a long-term trend filter whose loss often signals the start of a broader bear market.
CryptoQuant research lead Julio Moreno notes that Bitcoin is currently trading about 30% below its 365-day average, a level comparable to early stages of past bear cycles. Despite this, the asset's price has shown resilience, hovering around $70,000 at the time of reporting, with a modest 24-hour gain.
In a contrasting analysis, research and brokerage firm Bernstein argues this cycle is fundamentally different. In a client note led by analyst Gautam Chhugani, the firm described the environment as the "weakest bitcoin bear case in its history," attributing the decline to a crisis of confidence rather than structural damage to the ecosystem. "Nothing blew up, no skeletons will unravel," the analysts wrote, highlighting the absence of major exchange failures, widespread balance sheet stress, or systemic breakdowns that characterized previous downturns.
Bernstein reiterated its $150,000 Bitcoin price target for the end of 2026, citing continued institutional adoption, expansion of ETF infrastructure, and expectations for improving global liquidity conditions. The firm pointed to strong institutional alignment, including spot Bitcoin ETF adoption, growing corporate treasury participation, and major asset manager involvement, as factors marking a clear departure from earlier retail-dominated cycles.
Concurrently, a significant shift in investor behavior is underway. Experienced investors are moving from aggressive price bets to capital preservation strategies, seeking structured, automated ways to keep assets productive during market uncertainty. This has increased focus on platforms emphasizing compliance, asset segregation, and operational transparency.
Platforms like SolStaking are cited as examples of this shift, focusing on a regulated U.S. operational structure, strict separation of user assets, independent audits, insured custody, and enterprise-grade security. Furthermore, to reduce over-reliance on crypto price cycles, some strategies are integrating Real World Assets (RWAs)—such as AI data center operations, investment-grade bonds, commodities, and infrastructure projects—whose off-chain performance is transparently reflected on-chain.
Bernstein also addressed macro pressures, noting Bitcoin's recent underperformance relative to gold reflects its continued behavior as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset rather than a mature safe haven. The firm expects Bitcoin's recovery to be closely tied to changes in monetary policy and financial conditions, with ETF infrastructure poised to absorb new capital once liquidity eases.
The analysts dismissed concerns about leveraged corporate holdings and miner capitulation, noting major holders have structured liabilities to withstand prolonged downturns and miners have diversified revenue streams, including reallocating power to AI data centers, reducing forced selling risks.
