A new analysis from Grayscale reveals that Bitcoin's price movements have been tightly synchronized with US software stocks since early 2024, suggesting it is trading more like a high-growth tech asset than its traditional "digital gold" narrative. The report indicates this correlation implies a shared driver: broad de-risking of growth-oriented portfolios rather than crypto-specific issues.
Data shows US investors are a primary source of selling pressure, evident in Bitcoin trading at a discount on Coinbase versus Binance and net outflows of roughly $318 million from US-listed Bitcoin ETPs since early February. Analysts point to the $3 trillion private credit industry as the deeper cause. Private credit funds, which lend heavily to software companies, appear to treat Bitcoin and altcoins similarly to software assets.
Joao Wedson, founder of Alphractal, commented, "BTC is behaving like a high beta tech asset, driven by liquidity, growth expectations, and valuation cycles within the software market. This is how smart capital truly sees Bitcoin." This linkage means developments in the AI sector, which threatens to disrupt traditional software demand, now have a direct conflict with Bitcoin. UBS strategists warn that AI disruption could accelerate this year, potentially pushing US private credit default rates as high as 13%.
Dan, Head of Research at Coinbureau, argues that stress in private credit, which began in mid-2025, explains why Bitcoin decoupled from broader liquidity trends at that time. "Bitcoin has a strong correlation to software stocks, but what is the shared cause? It’s private credit, which is heavily involved in crypto and software, and has experienced stress since mid-2025," he said. This perspective clarifies an overlooked driver of recent crypto market weakness and highlights a broader risk channel connecting AI advances, private credit defaults, and digital asset prices.
