Derivatives markets are under intense scrutiny as nearly $3 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options are set to expire on Friday, February 13, 2026, at 08:00 UTC on the Deribit exchange. This event, with a total notional value of approximately $2.9 billion, follows a week of significant market turbulence and tests whether recent price stabilization is a temporary pause or the precursor to a new directional move.
Bitcoin options account for the lion's share of the expiry, with a notional open interest exceeding $2.53 billion from about 38,000 contracts. The max pain point—the price at which the most options contracts expire worthless—is around $75,000, well above Bitcoin's current trading price near $66,372. The put/call ratio for Bitcoin is 0.76, indicating more expiring call (long) contracts than puts (shorts).
Ethereum options represent roughly $406 million in notional value from around 217,000 contracts. ETH is trading near $1,950, with a max pain level around $2,150 and a put/call ratio of 0.89. Analysts note that a large share of open positions would benefit if prices moved higher toward these max pain levels.
The market remains cautious despite a rebound from last week's sharp sell-off, which saw Bitcoin briefly break below $70,000, triggering widespread liquidations. Derivatives analysts at Laevitas reported that Bitcoin's 1-week and 1-month 25-delta risk reversals remain "notably negative" at approximately -13 and -11 vols, respectively, signaling persistent demand for downside protection and a bearish sentiment among traders.
Deribit analysts described last week's move as triggering "one of the most extreme put skew moves in years." While some positioning has recently shifted back toward call options as volatility subsided, institutional skepticism remains. Analysts at Greeks.live reported that put options continue to dominate activity, with over $1 billion in BTC put options traded recently, accounting for 37% of total volume. Many of these are out-of-the-money options with strikes between $60,000 and $65,000.
"This indicates that institutions hold a negative outlook on the medium-to-long-term market trajectory, with a strong expectation of a bearish trend within the next one to two months," stated Greeks.live. Total crypto market capitalization has fallen to around $2.34 trillion, down over $125 billion since the start of the week, with analysts predicting potential further downside toward Bitcoin's realized price near $55,000.
The settlement of this large options expiry could relieve short-term pressure and stabilize markets, but it also carries the risk of acting as a catalyst for renewed volatility heading into the weekend.
