Hedera (HBAR) is facing significant bearish pressure, with its price trading around $0.094 as of mid-February 2026, struggling to break above the key psychological resistance of $0.10. The token's weakness is underscored by a sharp decline in fundamental network health indicators.
The Total Value Locked (TVL) on the Hedera network has plummeted from over $140 million to approximately $58.45 million within a few months, according to DeFiLlama data. This signals a major slowdown in on-chain economic activity. Concurrently, weekly revenue generated by decentralized applications (dApps) on Hedera has slumped by nearly 70% from its mid-quarter highs, indicating reduced engagement from both developers and users.
Technically, HBAR's price action remains constrained below a declining resistance trendline, with momentum indicators like the MACD staying negative. The immediate support level is near $0.085, with a deeper critical floor around $0.072. Analysts note that a decisive break above the $0.10 resistance is needed to potentially reverse the downtrend and target levels between $0.126 and $0.177.
Despite the bearish fundamentals, some technical signals hint at a potential short-term reversal. The Money Flow Index (MFI) is showing a bullish divergence against the price, suggesting weakening selling pressure. A breakout from its current descending broadening wedge pattern could trigger a short squeeze, with liquidation data indicating that a move above $0.1012 could force approximately $4.34 million in short liquidations.
However, Bitcoin's market direction poses a major headwind. HBAR has shown increasing correlation with Bitcoin, meaning any sustained weakness in BTC could block HBAR's potential breakout, regardless of its improving internal technical setup. The overall outlook for HBAR remains cautious, dependent on a recovery in both network fundamentals and broader market sentiment.
