The Unrealized Profit Ratio (UPR) for Bitcoin's new whales has dropped to -0.30, marking a return to a stress level last observed in June 2022 following a prior all-time high. According to data from CryptoQuant, the indicator—developed by Ki Young Ju—tracks the unrealized profit or loss of 'new whales,' defined as entities holding at least 1,000 BTC for fewer than 155 days. A negative UPR signals that these recent large buyers are underwater.
The chart shows the UPR for new whales as green and red histogram bars, with a white line tracking Bitcoin's price. During the latest market drop, the UPR fell to -0.30. The only comparable post-all-time-high instance was in June 2022, when the same -0.30 level was reached amid systemic stress events like the collapses of Terra (Luna) and Three Arrows Capital (3AC).
A key difference lies in the pace of the decline. In 2022, the UPR crossed into negative territory and reached -0.30 in less than one and a half months, a sharp capitulation driven by cascading failures. In the current cycle, the path to -0.30 has taken more than three months, indicating a gradual, controlled decline rather than a disorderly collapse.
Analysts note that a UPR of -0.30 suggests a significant portion of recently accumulated large positions are under stress. Historically, such conditions have coincided with heightened risk of either capitulation if losses accelerate, or stabilization if strong hands absorb supply. The slower descent this time implies controlled distribution rather than panic-driven liquidation.
Separate on-chain data focusing on the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric for 'Big Whales' (addresses holding >1,000 BTC) shows a value of around 0.2. This level has historically coincided with advanced stages of a bear market, indicating this group is nearing zero unrealized profits. Pseudonymous analyst Darkfost suggests that whales' holdings being under this much pressure could lead to market capitulation, further dragging the Bitcoin price down.
Evidence of stress is already visible among new whales. Between February 3 and 7, more than $3 billion in losses were realized by this cohort, representing a fresh potential source of selling pressure. As of the latest data, Bitcoin's price stands around $68,710, reflecting a 5% jump in 24 hours but remaining down nearly 3% over the past week.
