Bitcoin is showing signs of stabilization above the $68,000 level as Fidelity's Director of Global Macro, Jurrien Timmer, publicly identified the recent $60,000 low as the likely bottom of Bitcoin's four-year cycle. Timmer's analysis suggests that after a period of consolidation, Bitcoin is poised to enter a new bull market phase.
Despite a 12.47% drop in trading volume, market data indicates traders are rebuilding positions, with aggregate open interest across exchanges rising 2.09% to $45.36 billion. This activity coincides with spot Bitcoin ETFs recording a net inflow of $12.90 million on February 14, signaling renewed institutional and retail demand as the price attempts to stabilize within the $68,000 to $70,000 range.
Bitcoin's price action unfolds against a backdrop of macroeconomic uncertainty, including a partial U.S. government shutdown affecting key departments like the Department of Homeland Security, TSA, and Coast Guard. However, historical patterns suggest Bitcoin has been largely resilient to such political events, having reached record highs during previous shutdowns.
The primary market catalyst appears to be shifting expectations for Federal Reserve monetary policy. Data from prediction markets like Polymarket shows increasing odds for three to four interest rate cuts in 2024, fueled by recent economic reports. January's jobs data showed over 130,000 jobs added and unemployment falling to 4.3%, while the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) slipped to 2.4% in January from 2.7% the previous month.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has rebounded strongly from its year-to-date low of $60,000 to briefly touch $70,000. Key indicators are turning bullish: the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) is nearing a bullish crossover, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recovered from oversold territory to around 37. Analysts suggest the next major resistance lies at the 50-day moving average near $81,000, while a break below $60,000 would invalidate the current bullish outlook.
