Altcoins Face Critical Technical Tests and Liquidation Risks in February's Third Week

Feb 16, 2026, 11:52 a.m. 3 sources neutral

Key takeaways:

  • ARB's bearish structure and negative CMF suggest capital flight may accelerate if support at $0.1074 fails.
  • INJ's 0.98 correlation with Bitcoin means its fate is tied to BTC's next directional move, offering little independent alpha.
  • BCH's technical recovery faces a key test at $574.1, with the upcoming LAYLA upgrade discussion serving as a sentiment catalyst.

The altcoin market enters the third week of February 2026 in a state of heightened volatility, with several major tokens approaching critical technical levels while simultaneously facing significant liquidation risks. Analysis from BeInCrypto highlights a dual narrative of fragile sentiment and potential for sharp directional moves driven by both chart patterns and on-chain activity.

Technical Inflection Points for Key Altcoins

Three altcoins are identified as being at pivotal technical junctures. Arbitrum (ARB) is trading at $0.1134, maintaining a clear bearish structure after a sustained downtrend from $0.2261. Immediate resistance is at $0.1255, with support at $0.1074. A break below this support could trigger a move toward its all-time low of $0.0944. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator at -0.04 reflects ongoing capital outflows.

Injective (INJ) is trading at $3.134 following a sharp rejection from $5.924. Key resistance levels are at $3.275 and $3.662, with critical support at $3.036. A daily close below this support could lead to a continuation toward $2.650. Analysts note a 0.98 correlation with Bitcoin, suggesting INJ is highly susceptible to further BTC weakness.

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) shows a more constructive picture, trading at $558.3 after a relief bounce from $423.0. It has reclaimed the 0.786 Fibonacci level at $541.8 and is now testing resistance at $574.1. The upcoming Bitcoin Cash Toronto meetup on February 17, which will discuss the major LAYLA upgrade scheduled for May, is cited as a potential catalyst for further recovery.

Liquidation Risks Loom for XRP, DOGE, and TAO

Separate analysis warns of major liquidation risks for three other altcoins due to a combination of negative sentiment and specific on-chain events. XRP faces pressure as data indicates approximately 50 million XRP were net sold on the Upbit exchange within a 15-hour period, generating strong selling pressure ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday. Liquidation maps show that a decline to $1.30 could trigger over $200 million in long liquidations.

Dogecoin (DOGE) has seen a surge in its exchange balance since February 12, coinciding with a price recovery driven by rumors surrounding the launch of 'X Money'. This suggests investors may be using the recovery to exit positions. If this trend continues, DOGE could correct toward $0.091, where nearly $90 million in long positions are at risk of liquidation.

Bittensor (TAO) presents a mixed scenario following its listing on Upbit on February 16. The new liquidity could support a recovery, with analyst Michaël van de Poppe predicting a mean reversion to around $300. However, liquidation data indicates that a drop to $160 could trigger $11.5 million in long liquidations, while a climb above $283 could liquidate over $13 million in short positions.

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