On-chain data reveals a sharp spike in Bitcoin whale activity on Binance, coinciding with a critical bearish chart pattern that warns of a potential 20% price decline. According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin's whale inflow ratio on Binance, a 7-day average comparing inflows from the 10 largest transactions to total inflows, surged to a record 0.619 as of February 17, up from 0.40 at the start of the month. This spike suggests increasing sell-side pressure from large holders.
A key driver of this activity is a major whale, believed to be Garrett Jin (nicknamed "195DJ" or the "Hyperunit whale"), who reportedly transferred nearly 10,000 BTC to Binance in recent transactions. This movement comes as Bitcoin trades near $68,000, having declined over 22% year-to-date and on track for its weakest first-quarter performance since 2018.
Technically, Bitcoin is forming a bear pennant pattern on its daily chart. This pattern emerged following a steep sell-off toward the $60,000 zone and typically resolves with another leg down. A decisive breakdown below the pennant's support could open the door for a drop toward $56,000, representing a roughly 20% decline from current levels. A break above the pattern's upper trendline near $72,700 would invalidate the bearish setup.
Amid the bearish signals, Matrixport's analysis offers a counterpoint, noting that Bitcoin's "fear and greed index" has triggered a potential bottoming signal. The index's 21-day moving average has dipped below zero and is turning higher, a combination historically associated with "durable bottoms," suggesting seller exhaustion and raising the odds of a relief bounce before any sustained breakdown.
