Prominent on-chain analyst Willy Woo has issued a stark warning that the long-standing valuation trend between Bitcoin (BTC) and gold has broken, attributing the shift to growing market awareness of the quantum computing threat. For 12 years, from 2010 to 2022, Bitcoin consistently gained value against gold, but this upward trajectory has now been disrupted.
Woo asserts that the core issue is the market beginning to price in the potential of "Q-Day," a future point where quantum computers become powerful enough to break current public-key cryptography. This development could theoretically allow for the recovery of private keys to an estimated 4 million Bitcoins that are considered permanently lost. Woo emphasizes that this potential supply influx is larger than "8 years of institutional accumulation," fundamentally undermining Bitcoin's perceived scarcity advantage over gold.
The analyst estimates the probability of the Bitcoin network successfully executing a hard fork to freeze these potentially recovered coins at only 25%, citing the immense governance challenges related to fungibility and property rights. Consequently, he believes there is a 75% chance these coins could re-enter circulation. While Woo predicts Q-Day is still 5 to 15 years away, he notes financial markets are not waiting and are already applying a "structural discount" to Bitcoin's value relative to gold.
The analysis has sparked debate within the crypto community. Alex Gladstein of the Human Rights Foundation suggested recirculated coins might be hoarded by nation-states rather than immediately sold. The warning coincides with notable institutional shifts, such as Christopher Wood of Jefferies removing Bitcoin from a model portfolio in favor of gold, citing quantum risk for long-term investors.
Despite the concerns, the report clarifies this is not an imminent catastrophe. Bitcoin core developers highlight a multi-year window to implement post-quantum cryptographic upgrades, though debates persist on the aggressiveness of such changes. Woo's commentary arrives as Bitcoin trades nearly 50% below its all-time high, signaling a pivotal moment where a theoretical technological risk begins influencing real-world market valuations and portfolio decisions.
