On-chain data reveals that 46% of Bitcoin's circulating supply is currently held at a loss, totaling approximately 9.31 million BTC. This marks the highest level of underwater supply since the 2022 bear market, according to analysis from CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn. The significant overhead supply from these loss-making holders represents a potential barrier to price recovery, as these investors are likely to sell when prices approach their break-even points.
Maartunn explains that "a large share of holders are waiting to sell at breakeven or a small profit," and emphasizes that "that overhead supply must be absorbed and redistributed to stronger hands before a durable bottom can emerge." Analysis of the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) shows that the loss supply is heavily concentrated in the $80,000 to $95,000 and $105,000 to $120,000 price ranges, which are significantly above Bitcoin's current trading level around $68,600.
Simultaneously, Bitcoin's price action remains trapped in a critical stress zone between $60,000 and $70,000. Alphractal analysis indicates BTC is trading within a tight range defined by the Short-Term Holder Realized Price, respecting the -1σ and -1.5σ deviation bands. These bands have historically acted as natural support and resistance, with the -1.5σ level representing periods of maximum stress where selling pressure intensifies.
Alphractal founder Joao Wedson points to the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric for long-term holders, which currently stands at 0.36, indicating these resilient investors remain in profit. Historical patterns suggest that the clearest late bear-market signals emerge only when this metric turns negative, associated with extreme pessimism and seller exhaustion. This suggests the market may not yet be at a historical turning point.
Adding to the complex picture, miners have been reducing their exchange exposure significantly. CryptoQuant data shows more than 36,000 Bitcoin have been withdrawn from exchanges since the beginning of February, with daily withdrawals peaking above 6,000 BTC—the highest level since November. Over 12,000 BTC were withdrawn specifically from Binance, with the remainder spread across other exchanges. These movements are typically associated with transfers to long-term storage, potentially reducing immediate sell-side pressure.
