The silver spot price (XAG/USD) has declined to approximately $73.06 as of February 17, 2026, marking a 4% daily drop and extending a broader 20% monthly correction. This move has pushed the metal below the crucial $75 support level during thin Asian holiday trading. Despite the recent weakness, silver remains significantly higher on a year-over-year basis, highlighting the complex nature of its current price action.
Technical analysis shows a cautious market. The break below $75 has occurred, but traders remain hesitant to declare a confirmed bearish shift, as there have been six failed attempts to sustain a move below this level in recent sessions. Each dip was followed by a rebound. Momentum indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) are drifting toward oversold territory, while MACD readings remain negative, signaling fading upside momentum. Immediate support is now seen near $72, followed by the February swing low around $64.09. On the upside, former support at $75 may act as resistance, with key resistance levels identified at $78, $79.29, and $80.
The near-term catalyst is the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes. The market is awaiting detailed insight into policymakers' thinking after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in January. Recent U.S. inflation data showed headline CPI easing to 2.4% year-over-year, which in theory supports the case for eventual rate cuts. However, limited near-term prospects for dovish Fed policy continue to weigh on non-yielding assets like silver. The minutes may clarify how policymakers view inflation persistence and growth risks, directly impacting the silver price and the US dollar.
Contrasting this short-term pressure is a bold long-term forecast from analyst Karel Mercx. His thesis, based on two historic ratios, suggests a potential path for silver to reach $1,000. The first pillar is the Dow-to-gold ratio, which currently reads near 9.82. Mercx's midpoint target is near 2.5, implying gold would need to rise toward about $19,800 if the Dow remains near 49,501. The second pillar is the gold-silver ratio. Using a conservative ratio of 19, gold near $19,800 would produce a silver price slightly above $1,000. Based on cycle structure drawing from the 1970s template, Mercx projects a window between 2030 and 2033 for such a move.
The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) reflects similar crosscurrents, trading around $69–$70. While it remains up over 130% from early 2025 levels, short-term moving averages lean bearish. Key support for SLV lies between $65 and $68. With U.S. markets reopening after an extended weekend, liquidity is expected to improve, potentially amplifying price swings. The silver price outlook for the month hinges on confirmation: whether the $75 breakdown marks the start of a deeper retracement or simply another shakeout within a broader upward trajectory.
