The Bitcoin market is under significant pressure as on-chain data reveals the cryptocurrency is trading below the average cost basis for its influential ETF investor cohort. According to analyst PelinayPA, Bitcoin's price has fallen beneath the average realized price of Bitcoin ETFs, which is approximately $80,000. This level is now acting as a strong resistance point for any potential price rebound.
Compounding the issue, the ETF MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) index has slipped below the critical level of 1. Historically, a sustained move below this threshold signals increasing stress, reflecting a dominance of unrealized losses within an investor group. PelinayPA notes this condition heightens the risk of sell-pressure as investors may act emotionally, attempting to exit positions at break-even or with minimal losses. The analyst suggests that if MVRV stabilizes between 0.8–0.9, it could signal bearish exhaustion and precede a short-term rebound. However, a continued decline would increase pressure on ETFs, potentially triggering sell-offs and further downward price momentum.
This on-chain stress is reflected in persistent capital flight from the products. Data from SoSoValue shows US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded a fifth consecutive week of net outflows, with $315.9 million withdrawn last week alone. This five-week streak has resulted in cumulative redemptions of $3.8 billion, marking the longest sustained withdrawal phase since the ETFs launched. The largest single-week outflow was $1.49 billion for the period ending January 30.
Institutional behavior points to a broad de-risking strategy. Vincent Liu, Chief Investment Officer at Kronos Research, stated the outflows reflect portfolio de-risking amid macro uncertainty—including geopolitical tensions and tariff risks—rather than a structural rejection of Bitcoin. This risk-off bias is evident across markets, with the crypto fear and greed index sitting at 14, indicating "extreme fear."
The trend is not isolated to Bitcoin. Spot Ether ETFs also posted five consecutive weeks of net withdrawals, with $123.4 million removed last week, suggesting institutions are treating digital assets as a unified segment during volatility. As of the latest data, Bitcoin trades around $68,000. Since their launch, cumulative net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs stand at $54.01 billion, with total net assets near $85.31 billion, accounting for about 6.3% of Bitcoin's market capitalization.
