The Coinbase Premium SMA-30 (Simple Moving Average 30-day) has been rejected after attempting to move above the zero line, signaling a potential weakening of institutional buying pressure from U.S. investors. This metric measures the price difference between Bitcoin on the U.S.-based Coinbase exchange and other global exchanges. A sustained positive premium typically indicates strong U.S. demand, but its failure to hold above zero suggests hesitation and a lack of conviction among key buyers.
Analysts note that this technical pattern has historically preceded short-term market pullbacks. Despite a brief, temporary uptick, the premium quickly slipped back, mirroring Bitcoin's price weakness as it faced renewed selling pressure after attempting to stabilize. "This lack of sustained recovery in the premium, despite the temporary uptick, is considered a potential trigger for the recent downward price action," commented analytics firm CryptoQuant.
In a contrasting short-term development, the spot Coinbase premium itself flipped positive on February 23, 2026, for the first time since heavy selling began on February 6. This was interpreted by some traders as a hint that U.S. spot demand might be outpacing offshore pressure, potentially signaling that institutional selling has paused. However, market observers caution that a single flip is only a starting signal; its size, duration, and confirmation via exchange inflows and derivatives data are needed to establish a trend.
The broader market context includes geopolitical tensions and risk-off sentiment, which have pressured Bitcoin below key technical supports near $65,000. For a sustained bullish recovery, analysts emphasize that the Coinbase premium must not only break above zero but maintain a strong and stable positive reading, indicating renewed and consistent institutional accumulation.
