Technical analysts are highlighting chart patterns that suggest Bitcoin's long-standing dominance over the cryptocurrency market could be on the verge of a significant decline, potentially heralding the start of a major altcoin season. According to analyst Cryptoinsightuk, the weekly Bollinger Bands on the Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) chart are showing a compression and positioning that closely resembles the setup observed in March 2017.
That period preceded a rapid crash in Bitcoin's market share and the beginning of a powerful altcoin rally. The current chart shows BTC dominance pressing near the mid-to-upper Bollinger Band region around 59%, with the bands tightening. The analyst projects that this could lead to a downward move pushing Bitcoin dominance to a target range between 30% and 35%, with a mid-level of 33.5%.
Echoing this sentiment, another analyst known as Bird noted that violent downward moves in BTC.D have historically coincided with aggressive liquidity rotation into altcoins. Bird suggested that once dominance breaks convincingly, major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum (ETH) and XRP would start gaining meaningful market share, specifically highlighting XRP's potential for a strong move through March and beyond due to ongoing infrastructure development in Ripple's ecosystem.
Separately, analyst Crypto Patel shared a long-term altcoin dominance chart indicating a potential structural shift. The chart shows a five-year descending trendline nearing a break, with the MACD indicator on a higher timeframe about to print a bullish cross—the same type of signal that appeared before the massive altcoin explosions in 2017 and 2020-2021. Altcoin dominance has respected this falling resistance line since the previous cycle high, but is now pressing against it again while forming repeated higher lows, indicating building pressure.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin dominance stands at 57.7%, down 1.34% in the past 24 hours. Analysts caution that a breakout above the 60% range could invalidate the bearish thesis and extend Bitcoin's control further. The consensus among these technical observers is that the market is at a critical inflection point, with compressed volatility and turning momentum setting the stage for a potential, historically significant rotation of capital from Bitcoin into the broader altcoin market.
