Analysts from Bloomberg Intelligence project that Coinbase's revenue from stablecoins, primarily USD Coin (USDC), could surge by two to seven times as a result of the new regulatory framework established by the Genius Act. The act, signed into law by President Donald Trump in July 2025, creates a formal regulatory structure for stablecoins in the United States.
The Genius Act mandates that stablecoin issuers maintain full 1:1 backing with high-quality assets, specifically U.S. dollars and U.S. Treasury securities, while also subjecting them to stringent anti-money laundering requirements. This regulatory clarity is expected to reduce uncertainty, bolster institutional trust, and accelerate transaction volume and participation. In 2025, stablecoin-related revenue already constituted approximately 19% of Coinbase's total income.
The growth is tied to the expanding use of stablecoins beyond trading, particularly for payments, remittances, and merchant services. In 2025, total stablecoin transactions reached a record $33 trillion, with USDC alone accounting for over $18 trillion. As adoption rises, Coinbase stands to earn significantly more from transaction fees and its share of interest on USDC reserves.
However, the regulatory path includes trade-offs. The Genius Act's requirement for issuers to hold U.S. Treasuries could significantly boost demand for government debt, with some estimates pointing to a potential $1 trillion inflow long-term. Conversely, government limits on the yield paid to holders could dampen user incentives and slow adoption. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has warned that such curbs might slow adoption but suggested the company could adapt its revenue-sharing model.
Despite recent operational challenges, including a technical outage and stock market reactions to executive share sales, analysts view stablecoins as a major growth vector for Coinbase, potentially transforming it from a secondary revenue stream into a central profit driver.
