New data from Capriole Investments reveals that 77.4% of public companies holding Bitcoin in their corporate treasuries are currently sitting below their cost basis. The firm's "BTC Treasuries in Loss" indicator shows that a significant majority of these corporate holders are experiencing unrealized losses, with an even more concerning 65.6% of companies being more than 20% underwater on their Bitcoin investments.
The analysis comes as Bitcoin trades at approximately $67,001, a price point that falls below the average entry prices for several major institutional holders. The data provides a detailed look at the cost basis problem facing corporate treasuries. MicroStrategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder with 738,731 BTC, carries an estimated average entry price of approximately $75,863, placing its entire treasury roughly 12% below cost at current prices.
Metaplanet, which holds 35,102 BTC and recently launched its venture arm, entered at an estimated average of $97,000, leaving it approximately 31% below its cost basis. In contrast, Semler Scientific sits in the most favorable position among the three highlighted companies with an estimated $65,000 average entry price, meaning it remains marginally above water at current Bitcoin prices.
The 65.6% figure representing companies more than 20% below cost basis is particularly consequential. While a 20% unrealized loss might be manageable for companies with strong balance sheets and no debt obligations requiring Bitcoin liquidation, it becomes a stress event when companies have leveraged their Bitcoin positions through debt instruments, preferred stock dividends, or convertible notes that create liquidity requirements regardless of asset price.
Historical context from the Capriole indicator running from 2022 through early 2026 shows that the previous peak in the percentage of treasuries below cost basis occurred in mid-2022 through early 2023, when Bitcoin fell from $69,000 to below $16,000. At that point, the indicator reached similar elevated levels as today. What followed was a full recovery as Bitcoin climbed back above the cost basis of companies that had accumulated during the 2021 peak.
Notably, the current reading at 77.4% below cost basis is occurring at a meaningfully higher absolute price than the 2022 to 2023 stress period. Companies that entered during the 2024 and 2025 accumulation cycle at prices between $60,000 and $100,000 are experiencing paper losses at Bitcoin levels that would have represented significant gains for the 2020 and 2021 cohort, indicating that the cost basis distribution has shifted upward with each institutional accumulation wave.
The analysis highlights the importance of corporate debt structures in this environment. MicroStrategy's $75,863 average entry sitting above current price is the most watched number in corporate Bitcoin treasury analysis. CEO Michael Saylor has consistently argued that MicroStrategy's BTC-per-share metric rather than dollar profit and loss is the relevant measure of performance, but this framing works only as long as the company's debt service obligations do not require selling Bitcoin at current prices.
The simultaneous situation where 77% of corporate BTC treasury companies are underwater represents a historical stress reading. The last time this indicator reached comparable levels, it marked the period immediately before Bitcoin's recovery cycle began, suggesting potential parallels between current market conditions and previous turning points.
