Recent on-chain analysis reveals that Bitcoin's recent price decline may have been fueled by misinterpreted data, with long-term holders (LTHs) selling less aggressively than initially feared. According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, LTHs spent approximately 15.1 million BTC during the 2025 cycle, a figure only slightly below the 15.3 million BTC spent in the 2021 bull run. This contrasts sharply with the 7.3 million and 13.6 million BTC spent in prior cycles, indicating a shift in holder behavior.
A significant part of the perceived selling pressure was attributed to a data anomaly. Darkfost notes that Coinbase's internal transfer of roughly 800,000 BTC was miscategorized as LTH supply in on-chain metrics. Once these internal movements are excluded, the actual selling by long-term holders was likely even lower than the headline numbers suggested.
This analysis comes as Bitcoin demonstrates resilience, trading at $72,419 (up 2.95% on the day) despite a challenging macro backdrop featuring Brent crude hitting $100 per barrel and equity market sell-offs due to escalating Middle East tensions.
The market's ownership structure is undergoing a fundamental transformation, which could structurally reduce selling pressure in future cycles. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, launched in January 2024, now hold around 1.3 million BTC, representing roughly 6.7% of the total supply. Digital asset treasury companies, including Strategy, collectively hold another 1.1 million BTC, nearly 5% of supply. These institutional participants are not typical panic sellers.
However, other data suggests the market may not have found its ultimate floor. CryptoQuant indicates Bitcoin is in a 'Value Bottom' zone—a price level attractive for long-term dollar-cost averaging (DCA)—but has yet to form a 'Structural Bottom.' Analyst @chich1217 anticipates extended volatility, with prices likely fluctuating between $60,000 and $70,000 in the near term. The true structural bottom, historically marked by realized price bands flattening, may not materialize until late 2026 or 2027.
This creates a complex landscape for investors. While on-chain data suggests panic was overblown, the path to a definitive market bottom may be prolonged. As analyst Jelle stated, "I don't care to be a hero, or to look cool by calling the bottom – I'm just here to make money," advocating for a strategy of gradually building long-term exposure.
