A significant pullback in copper prices has triggered substantial strategic buying from Chinese industrial consumers and the State Reserve Bureau (SRB), according to a detailed market analysis from ING Bank. Copper prices declined approximately 12% from February 2025 peaks to around $8,180 per metric ton, creating what ING identifies as a critical inflection point. The bank's analysis suggests this represents strategic accumulation, reflecting China's long-term industrial needs, as the country accounts for roughly 55% of global refined copper demand.
This buying frenzy is driven by fundamental demand from China's expanding electric vehicle, renewable energy, and infrastructure sectors. Concurrently, gold markets are demonstrating notable resilience, with a sustained recovery gaining momentum as a softer US dollar provides crucial support. ING's commodity strategists point to shifting Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, geopolitical tensions, and robust central bank physical gold purchases as key factors underpinning this trend.
The analysis highlights the enduring interplay between currencies and commodities. The copper market, facing persistent structural supply constraints from major mining operations in Chile and Peru, continues to balance these against evolving demand patterns. ING maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook for both metals through 2025, citing balanced fundamentals and structural drivers like the global energy transition, which significantly increases copper intensity.
