Bloomberg Intelligence senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has drawn a compelling parallel between Bitcoin's current market phase and the period when Facebook transitioned from a "cool" social network to a mainstream platform used by billions. Balchunas, who co-hosts the Trillions podcast, argues that Bitcoin (BTC) has entered the same adoption phase that propelled Facebook's monthly active users from 1 billion to over 3 billion.
The core of the analogy lies in the loss of countercultural appeal. Balchunas stated on social media, "Bitcoin rn feels like when your parents joined Facebook. On one hand, it’s not as ‘cool’ anymore because of the Boomers, but on the other hand, Facebook’s user base grew from like 1 billion to 3 billion people since the coolness factor went away." He frames this shift not as a decline, but as a sign of maturation and the catalyst for massive, mainstream entry.
The data behind Facebook's growth supports the comparison. According to Meta, Facebook hit 1 billion monthly active users in 2012. By the end of 2023, that figure reached 3.07 billion. Crucially, while year-over-year growth rates collapsed below 10% after 2013, the absolute user base nearly tripled during that subsequent "boring" stretch.
Balchunas points to spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) as the primary catalyst for Bitcoin's analogous phase. He highlighted that BlackRock reported roughly 1 million people bought its iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) in the fund's first year alone. IBIT now holds 782,180 BTC, representing about 3.9% of Bitcoin's total supply.
Seeking hard data, Balchunas asked for numbers on Bitcoin holder growth over 3, 5, and 10 years. Current estimates place the number of global Bitcoin holders at approximately 106 million, a significant increase from a range of 30 to 50 million in 2021. The analyst's thesis suggests that when an asset loses its identity-driven, "cool" appeal and begins to attract broad, passive capital—as seen with ETF inflows—it often marks the start of its largest growth phase, not the end.
This perspective is echoed by other market observers. The LondonCryptoClub noted on social media, "It’s funny as we get so many no-coiners say to us Bitcoin has died, no one’s interested in it anymore…yet really, it’s just getting started." The directional trend in holder growth since the U.S. ETF approvals in early 2024 points toward the possibility of Bitcoin's holder base following a trajectory similar to Facebook's user explosion.
