Fundstrat's Tom Lee predicted in February 2026 that the crypto winter would end by April at the latest. With the month now days away, Bitcoin is trading above his cited $60,000 support level, and Ethereum sits just above his predicted $1,890 bottom. However, the market remains gripped by extreme fear, creating a divergence between price action and sentiment.
Lee, managing partner and head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, made the call in a mid-February interview, stating: "I think the crypto winter either ended already or it's going to, the latest is April. We just have to undercut it once more and then that's the bottom. We're really close to the end." His bullish reasoning rested on expected easing of U.S. monetary policy under new Fed head Kevin Warsh, a broader business cycle turnaround, and slowing inflation.
As of March 29, Bitcoin trades at $66,698, roughly $6,700 above Lee's $60,000 floor. Ethereum is at $1,998.56, only $108 above his $1,890 bottom. While prices technically align with his support thesis, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index reads 9, deep in "Extreme Fear" territory, suggesting market psychology does not reflect a concluded winter.
The prediction faces two concrete tests in April: whether Bitcoin can hold above $60,000, and the Federal Reserve's next policy signals. Lee anchored much of his optimism to expected dovish moves from the Fed. Any indication of tightening or unchanged policy would undermine a pillar of his argument.
Lee's prediction has drawn criticism, notably from Canadian billionaire and mining magnate Frank Giustra, who mocked Lee's continuous bullish calls as "embarrassing to watch." Giustra, a gold advocate, views Bitcoin as a speculative asset incapable of being a legitimate store of value, contrasting Lee's stance that gold has underperformed inflation 48% of the time since 1971, while Bitcoin has beaten inflation 97% of the time since 2010.
Lee's track record on cycle calls is mixed—he correctly identified the 2020 post-COVID recovery but has also been premature on bull-market calls. April will settle the question, with key data points being $60,000 on BTC, $1,890 on ETH, and whether the Fear & Greed Index climbs out of single digits.
