Prominent cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen has identified a recurring historical pattern in Bitcoin's price behavior specifically tied to U.S. midterm election years. According to his analysis shared on social media platform X, Bitcoin tends to follow a distinct seasonal rhythm: establishing a price bottom in February, rallying in March, and then showing renewed weakness and potential declines in April. This pattern has been observed in the 2014, 2018, and 2022 midterm election cycles.
This analysis emerges as Bitcoin faces significant macroeconomic pressures. On Wednesday, Bitcoin faced rejection at the $69,000 level following President Donald Trump's speech on Iran, which failed to guarantee an end to conflict, causing oil prices to soar above $110 and triggering a flight from risk assets. Simultaneously, turmoil in the private credit markets is eroding investor confidence. Blue Owl, a $307 billion alternative asset manager, announced "extraordinary redemption requests" for two of its private credit funds, capping withdrawals at 5%.
Further bearish sentiment stems from institutional Bitcoin ETF outflows and miner sales. U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen $450 million in net outflows since March 24, indicating weak institutional demand. Publicly listed miners are also unwinding positions: MARA Holdings sold 15,133 BTC in March, Riot Platforms transferred 500 BTC for sale, and Nakamoto Holdings disclosed a sale of 284 BTC.
Despite these headwinds, a potential silver lining exists in the form of anticipated economic stimulus. The U.S. federal deficit is expected to reach $1.9 trillion in 2026, which analysts suggest leaves little room for maneuver other than injecting liquidity—a scenario that historically benefits scarce assets like Bitcoin. This dynamic, coupled with continued accumulation by firms like MicroStrategy and Metaplanet absorbing selling pressure, could support Bitcoin's medium-term path toward $75,000, provided risk perception improves.
