Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM) is set to report its fiscal second-quarter earnings for 2026 on Wednesday, April 29, after the market close. The company's conference call is scheduled for 1:45 p.m. Pacific time. Options traders are pricing in an 8.7% implied move, indicating significant uncertainty around the print.
Wall Street expects earnings per share (EPS) of approximately $2.56, down 10.2% year-over-year, on revenue of roughly $10.59 billion, a decline of about 3.6%. Qualcomm itself guided revenue in the range of $10.2 billion to $11.0 billion and adjusted EPS between $2.45 and $2.65. Over the past 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been cut by 4.4%, suggesting the market has quietly lowered expectations.
Key Headwinds: Smartphone Weakness and Memory Shortage
The primary drag on Qualcomm remains its handset business. In February, the company stated that a global memory chip shortage was impacting smartphone production, particularly in China. It forecast a 7% decline in advanced smartphone chip shipments in 2026. This is a major headwind, as mobile chips still account for the majority of Qualcomm's revenue.
Diversification Efforts: Automotive and AI
Despite the smartphone weakness, Qualcomm's diversification story is gaining traction. In March, the company reported automotive revenue of $1.1 billion and a design-win pipeline of $45 billion. Qualcomm also partnered with Wayve on an integrated AI driving system, with Qualcomm Ventures joining AMD and Arm in a $60 million investment in Wayve in April. Investors are closely watching these developments as concrete bets on a multi-year vehicle platform opportunity.
Analyst Downgrades and Mixed Sentiment
Barclays analyst Thomas O'Malley reinstated coverage with a Sell rating and a $130 price target, citing heavy exposure to memory shortages and elevated pricing expected to drive a double-digit decline in handset volumes. JPMorgan's Samik Chatterjee downgraded QCOM from Buy to Hold, cutting his price target from $185 to $140, due to slow diversification from smartphones and a lack of near-term catalysts. The current Wall Street consensus is Hold: 17 Holds, 8 Buys, and 4 Sells, with an average price target of $152.28.
What to Watch on the Call
Investors will be listening for: first, whether automotive revenue and pipeline commentary hold firm; second, any signs that edge AI and Snapdragon-driven device demand are picking up; and third, updates on the China demand environment. Clear commentary on memory shortage impacts, partnership updates, and any data center plans—expected at the analyst day in June—will be critical.
