Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, has declared the beginning of a Bitcoin bull market after observing how the asset defies traditional technical patterns. According to the expert from the firm managing $7.1 trillion, Bitcoin managed to invalidate the dreaded 'Kiss of Death,' a technical setup that usually precedes severe drops, demonstrating unexpected resilience above $77,000.
This shift in stance is particularly interesting for the market, as Timmer is known for his previous caution. The breakdown of classical analysis rules suggests that Bitcoin is not experiencing a temporary bounce, but rather a phase of accumulating bullish strength. The context is reinforced by record inflows into Bitcoin ETFs during April 2026 and greater regulatory clarity in the U.S.
Fidelity Digital Assets' Signals Report Q2 2026 further supports this view, stating that Bitcoin's latest drawdown has pushed the market into a zone that has historically aligned with accumulation phases. The report's clearest price signal comes from the asset's 'Yardstick,' a valuation framework comparing market capitalization to hash rate. Fidelity rated the metric positive, noting that the indicator has moved into an 'undervalued' zone.
Historically, this undervalued zone has aligned with accumulation phases and relative bottoms. Bitcoin spent 71 of the previous 91 days (78% of the period) below negative one standard deviation of the Yardstick's mean, first appearing in October 2025 and amplified by cold-weather events in the U.S. that temporarily curtailed mining activity.
Fidelity's momentum signal for Bitcoin turned negative on October 18, 2025, when BTC traded near $107,000. Since then, Bitcoin has fallen roughly 36%, with most of Q1 2026 spent in a defined range between $62,500 and $76,022. The firm said that pattern is more consistent with consolidation than a renewed trend.
Bitcoin's Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) score stood at 0.21 at the end of Q1 2026, placing investors in the 'Hope-Fear' zone. However, prior periods when Bitcoin's NUPL hovered around 0.21 coincided with a median one-year return of 63% and a three-year compound annual growth rate of 74%.
Timmer also highlighted a tactical setup, sharing a chart showing BTC testing the upper boundary of a potential bear flag near $79,486 after its rebound from the February low around $60,033. 'If Bitcoin cannot be pulled down by this current combination of overbought momentum and trendline resistance, then this is an emerging bull market and not a bear market rally,' Timmer said. The next step to validate this structural change will be firm consolidation over the $80,000 to $83,000 zone, with Fidelity's long-term models already projecting targets of $200,000 for 2027.
