Analysts are issuing stark warnings that Bitcoin's recent rally may be built on precarious foundations, urging caution amid signals of an impending crash.
According to an analyst known as Orbion, Bitcoin's climb above $79,000 represented a final "bull trap" that fooled investors into buying before a sharp reversal. He argues the bear market is far from over and predicts BTC will eventually drop to around $40,000, a more than 40% decline from current levels above $75,000. Orbion's chart shows Bitcoin trading within a descending channel since its all-time high above $125,000 in October 2025, consistently forming lower highs and lower lows.
Separately, market analyst KillaXBT has stated Bitcoin has "absolutely zero chance" of reclaiming $100,000 this year. He warns that 42% of participants still expect a bullish close, indicating market sentiment has not reached true capitulation. He forecasts a potential crash below $60,000 rather than a recovery above $100,000 over the next 90 days.
Data analytics firm CryptoQuant adds to the bearish case, reporting that April's 20% surge from $66,000 to $79,000 was driven entirely by growth in perpetual futures demand—a form of leveraged speculation—while its "apparent demand" metric, which tracks genuine spot buying, remained negative throughout the entire rally. The firm draws a direct comparison to the onset of the 2022 bear market, which displayed the same demand signature and preceded a 70% price collapse.
CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index declined from 50 to 40 during April, falling back into what the firm describes as bearish territory. Bitcoin has already begun correcting from the $79,000 peak, trading around $76,400 as of the report. CryptoQuant cautions that without a shift in apparent spot demand from negative to positive, any attempt to reclaim the $79,000 peak would lack the on-chain foundation for a durable breakout.
