Bitcoin’s recent slide below $80,000 has reignited debate over whether the current bear market is near its end, with several analysts pointing to historical cycle data that suggests a deeper bottom is still ahead. At press time BTC trades around $76,600, down from its October 2025 all‑time high of $126,000.
Crypto analyst Cyclop highlighted that past bull markets each lasted 1,065 days while bears took 365 days to bottom. The 2022–2025 bull run topped in October 2025, meaning the 365‑day bear clock would not expire until October 2026. His charts imply a bottom could form later this year, followed by the next cycle that could push BTC to $140,000–$150,000 by 2030.
Fellow analyst Colin echoed that the local top is in, noting BTC rejected the 200‑day moving average and a long‑term trend line. He stressed that a mere four‑month downtrend is historically too short to mark a final low, and reiterated that the shallowest bear market retracement of 77% would put a floor around $40,000.
The outlook was reinforced by trader Doctor Profit, who expects a leg down into the $50,000–$60,000 range before a final bottom formation near $40,000. He bases this on the traditional four‑year halving cycle, a theory challenged by Dan Gambardello. Gambardello argues the four‑year pattern is not driving the current leg lower and that a macro‑driven dip to $70,000 may instead be playing out, with altcoins poised for a subsequent surge.
Amid inflation fears and geopolitical tensions—including stalled U.S.–Iran peace talks—Bitcoin’s recent bounce to $80,000 proved short‑lived, and a resolution to the selling pressure appears distant.
