Oil prices surged sharply on Monday after Iranian negotiators suspended talks through intermediaries, citing Israel’s continued attacks on Lebanon. Brent crude futures jumped 6.2% to $96.77 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate climbed 7% to $93.48 — marking their largest single-session moves in months. The geopolitical shock pulled oil stocks higher, with ExxonMobil (XOM) rising 2.9% to $149.41, snapping a seven-day losing streak and posting its best day since mid-May. Chevron (CVX) added 2.9%, BP gained 3.5%, and Shell (SHEL) ADRs climbed 2.2%. The XLE energy ETF rose 2.3%.
By Tuesday, however, the picture turned more complex. President Trump claimed that talks were at an advanced stage, then later signaled a 60-day ceasefire was under consideration — but only if Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, remove mines, and commit to no nuclear weapons. Iran’s Foreign Ministry responded by announcing an end to talks, citing Israeli bombardment of Lebanon and US violations. With conflicting signals, Brent crude hovered around $94, trapped in a tight range. Traders are now weighing the potential for a ceasefire that could bring more supply versus a resumption of hostilities that would worsen the ongoing inventory drawdown.
From a technical perspective, Brent is flashing mixed signals. A double-top pattern with a neckline at $86.26 suggests a bearish breakdown could push prices below $60, while an island reversal pattern points to a possible bullish breakout. The conflict’s volatility keeps both scenarios alive, with Israel’s opposition to any US-Iran deal remaining a major wildcard. Fundamentals for oil majors remain strong — ExxonMobil beat Q1 EPS estimates with $1.16 vs. $0.98 consensus on revenue of $83.16 billion — but analysts remain cautious, maintaining a consensus “Hold” rating with a $165.55 price target.
