TD Securities has raised its price outlook for silver and platinum group metals (PGMs), driven by persistent supply deficits and the expectation that gold will remain strong over the long term. The revised forecasts, covering the next two quarters and extending further, reflect an improving global economic backdrop that the bank believes will support both industrial and investment demand for precious metals.
Silver supply deficits and upgraded forecasts
Silver markets are grappling with structural deficits, as mine supply struggles to keep pace with demand from solar panel manufacturing, electronics, and investors seeking a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty. TD Securities expects this deficit to persist through 2025 and into 2026, providing a fundamental tailwind for prices. For PGMs, the outlook is similarly constructive, with upgrades for platinum and palladium based on recovering automotive demand and tightening supply from major producing regions.
Gold’s near-term headwinds, long-term catalysts
While gold faces near-term pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar and rising real yields, TD Securities remains firmly bullish over the longer horizon. The bank highlights robust central bank purchases, geopolitical uncertainties, and expectations of eventual Federal Reserve rate cuts as key drivers. The improving global economy, particularly in manufacturing and the green energy transition, adds a demand base for silver and PGMs that gold does not share, reinforcing the dual nature of these metals.
Implications for crypto markets
Although not a direct crypto event, the macro forces behind TD’s outlook—dollar weakness, falling real rates, and central bank diversification away from fiat—closely align with the investment case for decentralized stores of value like Bitcoin. A sustained bullish cycle in gold often lifts sentiment across scarce digital assets, and any acceleration in rate-cut expectations could amplify capital flows into cryptocurrencies.
TD Securities cautions that short-term volatility remains likely, but views any pullback as a buying opportunity given the underlying supply-demand dynamics. For crypto investors, the report reinforces the importance of monitoring macroeconomic shifts that historically drive alt-currency demand.
