Analysts Warn Bitcoin’s Bounce to $64K May Be a Bull Trap, Capitulation Still Ahead

2 hour ago 2 sources neutral

Key takeaways:

  • Short-squeeze-fueled Bitcoin bounce risks bull trap; $467M liquidations may precede deeper correction.
  • Institutions exploiting retail panic hints at a floor near $50k, favoring patient accumulation strategies.
  • Analog to 2022 spring pattern suggests potential retest of $48k-$59k zone before sustainable rally.

Bitcoin’s rapid recovery from Friday’s crash below $60,000 has stirred optimism, but several prominent analysts are cautioning traders not to trust the bounce. Over the weekend, the flagship cryptocurrency climbed back above $62,000 and briefly spiked to $64,200 on Monday after US President Donald Trump hinted at a potential peace deal with Iran. However, the upward move may be a prelude to a deeper correction, according to market voices WhaleTwits and Merlijn The Trader.

WhaleTwits warned on X that “something extremely bad is coming today” for Bitcoin, yet the message was not purely bearish. The analyst suggested that large investors and institutions are taking advantage of retail panic to accumulate coins ahead of an eventual bottom. The accompanying chart indicates a floor above $50,000, after which a “Parabolic Mark-Up” could send Bitcoin toward $500,000 in the 2026–2028 timeframe. In effect, WhaleTwits sees the current turmoil as a final shakeout before a historic rally.

Merlijn The Trader issued a similar alarm, drawing parallels with the 2022 bear market. He recalled how BTC formed a “spring” at $15,500, rallied to $23,000, and then suffered capitulation. Applying that playbook to 2026, he expects a bounce to $65,000–$70,000, followed by a decline into a dollar-cost averaging zone of $48,000–$59,000. He explicitly told followers: “The Bitcoin bounce is coming. Don’t go all-in on it.”

Futures market data from CoinGlass shows that the rebound triggered over $467 million in short liquidations, contributing to a total daily liquidation volume exceeding $600 million. Nonetheless, the overall sentiment among these analysts remains cautious, believing the market has not yet fully purged its excesses.

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