Three months of war have severely constricted the Strait of Hormuz, yet global oil markets have avoided the catastrophic price spikes many feared. Visible commercial traffic through the chokepoint has collapsed to roughly 15% of pre-war levels, according to JPMorgan, but a shadow fleet of "ghost tankers" is moving significant volumes of crude with transponders switched off. These clandestine flows, estimated at 2.1 to 2.9 million barrels per day in May, help explain why Brent crude currently trades around $93 a barrel rather than the $150+ scenarios once projected.
Maritime intelligence firm Vortexa tracked hundreds of dark transits, with 65.2% of outbound laden vessels sailing dark in May. Non-Iranian operators now dominate these covert movements, signaling that commercial actors have adapted to conflict risk. "The ghosts, or clandestine flows, help," said Jan Stuart of Piper Sandler. "There has been far better mitigating of the crisis than I would have thought possible."
Other workarounds have also absorbed shock. Saudi Arabia is routing up to 5 million barrels per day through its East-West Pipeline to Yanbu, while the UAE ships up to 1.8 million barrels per day via Fujairah. The United States has stepped in with record seaborne exports—5.6 million barrels per day in May—much of it drawn from commercial and strategic reserves. Since late March, US crude inventories have fallen by 86 million barrels, including 58 million from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which is on track for its lowest level since the early 1980s.
Yet the calm is fragile. Asian demand is weakening, particularly in China, where imports fell to an eight-and-a-half-year low. Meanwhile, US gasoline and middle distillate stocks are perilously low. Commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch of Commerzbank warns that the US may soon be forced to curb exports, risking domestic shortages and higher prices ahead of midterm elections. "Things are going to get worse," added Stuart, projecting Brent to average $130 a barrel in July and August, with US pump prices potentially surging past $5 per gallon. The Houthis have threatened to expand blockades, and diplomatic efforts remain fragile, leaving the oil market in a high-risk equilibrium where disruption is only partly disguised by darkness.
