Multiple analysts warn that Bitcoin (BTC) may face further downside before a substantial recovery, with predictions ranging from a drop to $55,000 to a 'max pain' scenario near $48,000. These forecasts come as the market grapples with a roughly 28% decline from May highs.
Wyckoff Phase B and the Spring
Analyst Pepesso argues that Bitcoin remains in Phase B of the Wyckoff accumulation cycle—the Secondary Test stage—where large players quietly test support levels. He expects a short-term rally toward $72,000, followed by a sharp sell-off below $55,000, which would shake out weak hands and mark the 'Spring' phase. After accumulation, he sees a strong uptrend eventually pushing Bitcoin above $150,000.
Bitwise's 'Max Pain' at $48,000
André Dragosch, Head of Research Europe at Bitwise, sees potential for as much as 20% further downside. He points to structural supports: the 200-week moving average (~$61,000), realized price (~$56,000), and long-term holder cost basis (~$48,000). This last level represents the 'max pain' downside target. Bitwise's experimental bottom-cycle probability model has begun ticking higher, though on-chain indicators remain below previous cycle lows.
Galaxy's Base-Case Bottom
Galaxy Head of Firmwide Research Alex Thorn also believes Bitcoin hasn't bottomed. In a base-case scenario, Galaxy projects a potential bottom between $40,000 and $46,000 by Q4 2026, noting that only 4 of 13 historical bottoming indicators have been triggered. However, the firm says peak-to-trough declines of 75–80% are less likely as cycle amplitudes compress.
Dragosch attributed the recent sell-off to roughly $2 billion in weekly ETP outflows—equivalent to ~50,000 BTC sold into the market—rather than strategy shifts by corporate treasuries. He added that the Altcoin Excitement Index remains flat, and altseason prospects hinge on U.S. crypto legislation.
