Bitcoin remains under heavy selling pressure after breaking down from a large rising channel that had supported price action through the first half of the year. The loss of the $70,000 psychological level triggered an aggressive $10,000 decline in just four days, dropping BTC into the major support region around $60,000. While the $60K zone has so far held and allowed a short-term bounce, both technical and on‑chain indicators suggest the market is still highly vulnerable, and any apparent recovery could be deceptive.
The daily chart shows Bitcoin is now trading below both the 100‑day and 200‑day moving averages, which are converging above $70K. This reinforces the overhead supply zone and sets strong dynamic resistance. Should BTC attempt a sustained recovery, the first barrier lies between $65,000 and $68,000, with sellers likely concentrated in the $72,000–$74,000 supply area. A decisive reclaim of that high zone would be necessary to invalidate the bearish structure. Meanwhile, the 4‑hour timeframe reveals a small ascending channel that signals improving short‑term momentum, but the rally is modest so far. A breakdown below $60K would significantly increase the probability of a sharper decline toward $51,000.
On‑chain data paints a concerning picture. The UTXOs in Profit (%) metric has collapsed to around 50%, meaning only half of Bitcoin’s unspent transaction outputs are currently held at a profit. Such a sharp deterioration is rare and historically correlates with late‑stage correction phases or capitulation events. While it can eventually mark a bottom if buyers step in, the current combination of low profitability and resistance overhead suggests the market has absorbed significant realized losses and may require extended consolidation before a genuine trend reversal.
Futures market data adds another cautionary layer. Funding rates have turned positive again, yet price remains stuck below the $64,000–$65,000 resistance. This divergence indicates that leveraged long positions are building faster than spot momentum can justify, a setup that frequently precedes liquidation events. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe noted that reclaiming the $64K–$65K resistance is necessary for a shift in momentum, while a relaxation of macroeconomic tensions could improve risk appetite. As long as Bitcoin fails to break above this key zone and flip it to support, the risk of a deeper decline stays elevated.
