Bitcoin’s current cycle may not have reached its bottom yet, but the eventual trough is likely to be significantly higher than in previous downturns, according to a new research report from Galaxy Digital. The digital asset manager highlights that diminishing peak-to-trough declines and calmer market overheating signals suggest a potential bottom forming above $54,000, though multiple scenarios remain.
Key Level: Realized Price at $53,600
Galaxy’s analysis points to Bitcoin’s realized price—the average cost basis of all coins on-chain—as a critical support level. Currently near $53,600, this metric reflects actual capital invested rather than speculative sentiment. The firm’s base scenario envisions a bottom in the $40,000 to $46,000 range if the MVRV ratio falls to historical trough levels, while a harder capitulation could push prices as low as $30,000–$37,000. On the upper end, a shallower correction could keep the floor between $51,000 and $54,000, and a four-year average touch scenario would imply a bottom around $62,000—a mere 51% decline from the October 2025 peak.
Cycle Indicators Not Yet Fulfilled
The report notes that only 4 out of 13 of the classic bottom indicators have been triggered so far. Historically, cycle bottoms form 12 to 13 months after a peak, but only about eight months have passed since the October 2025 high. Galaxy Research stated, “We assume that Bitcoin has not yet bottomed out in the current decline, and the data supports this assumption. A calmer peak in October 2025 will likely lead to a shallower bottom.” Indeed, the most recent peak saw only 2 out of 11 overheat indicators activate, making it the “calmest” cycle top in Bitcoin’s history.
Evolving Cycle Dynamics
Galaxy argues that while the four-year cycle structure remains intact, the amplitude is shrinking. Past cycles saw 85%, 84%, and 77% peak-to-trough declines, whereas the current drawdown is about 51%. This trend toward milder corrections is attributed to increased institutional participation and maturing market infrastructure. However, the firm cautions that realized price is not a guaranteed floor; a wave of panic selling could pull the metric lower.
Investors should monitor additional bottom indicators being triggered over the coming months, with Galaxy suggesting the most likely window for a definitive bottom is between now and the fourth quarter of 2026.
