Polymarket is facing intense criticism after traders alleged the decentralized prediction platform changed the resolution criteria for a live market that had already accrued $3.8 million in wagers. The contract asked whether Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR), the business-intelligence firm formerly known as MicroStrategy, would sell any of its Bitcoin holdings by May 31, 2025.
The dispute erupted when Strategy disclosed on June 1, 2025, that it had sold some Bitcoin during the prior week. The corporate filing showed the sale occurred before the May 31 deadline, leading many “Yes” share traders to believe they would win. However, Polymarket added a late clarification stating that the YES outcome would only be awarded if the sale was publicly disclosed before 11:59 p.m. ET on May 31, 2025. Because Strategy’s announcement came a day later, the platform ruled the sale did not count, wiping out the value of winning contracts.
One trader, Hunter Guo, a 20-year-old student at King’s College London, purchased thousands of “Yes” shares after seeing the sale news, expecting a $35,000 profit. Minutes later, the shares became nearly worthless. “I cried for two days. It’s a lot of money,” Guo said. He has since launched a social media campaign under #StopPolyScam, filed complaints with U.S. regulators, and built a website for fellow traders to document losses and coordinate grievances.
This incident echoes earlier reports by outlets such as The Wall Street Journal and Crypto Briefing highlighting Polymarket’s ambiguous settlement rules. Prediction markets rely on clear, pre‑defined resolution criteria, but when clarifications are added mid‑market, traders who bet under one interpretation can suffer significant losses through no fault of their own. The controversy underscores the critical importance of transparent, immutable contract terms in decentralized finance, as even minor wording changes can redirect millions of dollars.
The broader crypto market continues to see institutional interest, with Bitcoin ETF flows recently reversing outflow streaks, making events tied to major corporate holders like Strategy highly visible. Polymarket has yet to issue a detailed public response, leaving the affected traders and the wider community waiting to see if the platform will revisit the settlement or issue a formal clarification.
