Bitcoin’s long-term holders (LTHs) are displaying a paradoxical mix of conviction and vulnerability. While the total supply they control has surged to an all-time high of approximately 16.1 million BTC, their profitability is at its lowest in three years. Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. highlighted that the LTH MVRV (market value to realized value) ratio has dropped to 1.24, dangerously close to the levels that historically precede major market cycle bottoms.
The average cost basis for these holders now stands at roughly $48,400. Bitcoin’s price hovering near this threshold means many investors are barely in profit. Adler warns that a sustained break below this level could shatter sentiment, triggering a wave of distribution that might accelerate a sell-off. “The $48,400 mark is not just a price point—it’s a behavioral threshold,” he noted, emphasizing that the market’s ability to remain above it will determine whether the accumulation phase continues.
Glassnode’s latest research adds nuance. The on-chain analytics firm confirms that long-term holders have returned to accumulation mode, absorbing supply from weaker hands. However, the report cautions that the risk of a final capitulation is not yet eliminated. Spot Bitcoin ETFs are still seeing net outflows, yet order books on exchanges like Binance and Coinbase lean toward buy orders—a divergence suggesting retail conviction might be firmer than institutional sentiment.
Options data reveals heightened demand for downside hedging, and a build-up of leveraged long positions could amplify selling if a sharp drop triggers liquidations. Glassnode points to elevated implied volatility, mirroring past bear-phase setups where a final flush of leverage paved the way for a durable recovery. “The foundation for a bottom may be forming, but the market is not yet out of the woods,” the firm concluded.
