Tesla (TSLA) stock gained 1.1% on Wednesday, closing at $425.30 after touching an intraday high of $432.86, as investors positioned ahead of the electric-vehicle maker’s closely watched second-quarter delivery report. The move came despite broader weakness across technology stocks, with the Nasdaq Composite falling 0.4% and the S&P 500 slipping 0.1%. Trading volume was well below average at around 39.7 million shares, compared to a typical 58.6 million.
Wall Street estimates for Q2 deliveries vary considerably, reflecting uncertainty around demand. Analysts surveyed by FactSet expect approximately 409,000 vehicles, while Bloomberg's consensus sits near 400,000 and Tesla’s own compiled consensus is roughly 406,000. A beat would mark Tesla’s second consecutive quarter of year-over-year delivery growth, a feat the company has not achieved since 2024. Annual deliveries peaked at 1.8 million in 2023 before declining in both 2024 and 2025; Wall Street projects a modest recovery to around 1.7 million in 2026.
Adding to optimism, new European registration data released Wednesday showed a sharp recovery. Registrations rose 39% in Denmark, 56% in Sweden, 5.6% in Spain, and more than doubled in France. Norway was a notable exception, with registrations falling 43% year-over-year, partly due to demand pulled forward ahead of incentive changes. The European rebound follows a difficult period marked by competition from Chinese manufacturers, a limited product lineup, and consumer backlash over CEO Elon Musk’s political activity.
Not all signals are positive. Michael Burry disclosed fresh short positions against Tesla, citing valuation and execution risk, while BYD is on track to overtake Tesla again in fully electric vehicle sales. The delivery report remains a critical catalyst for a stock that has already run hard into the event.
